مؤشرات التغير المناخي وأثرها في زراعة وإنتاج
محصول الرمان في محافظة واسط
رسالة تقدمت بها الطالبة
هنادي عادل صحن
إلى مجلس كلية التربية - ابن رشد للعلوم الإنسانية
وهي جزء من متطلبات نيل شهادة الماجستير
في الجغرافية الطبيعية
بإشراف
الأستاذ الدكتور
يوسف محمد علي الهذال
" The climate change indicator and its effect upon the cultivation of pomegranates in Wasit Governorate"
A thesis
Submitted to the council of the college of education , Ibn Rushd for Human Sciences , University of Baghdad as partial requirements of fulfillment of Mater Degree in the Natural geography
By the student
HANADI ADIL SAHAN
Supervised by
Prof. Dr. YUSIF MOHAMMED ALI AL-HITHAL
2018AD 1440AH
Abstract
Climate change is a global phenomenon with local impacts. Agricultural activity in the study area in general and pomegranates cultivation in particular is highly sensitive to climate change. The study area is dry and depends on the water of the Tigris River. The main problem of the study represented in one question(Have the climate change indicators affected the pomegranates crop in Wasit?) The hypotese responded to this problem ( There is Effect of climate changes indicators on pomegranates cultivation. The study was based on climatic data for four climatic stations within the governorate (Hayy, Kut, Aziziyah and Badra) The study included five chapters as well as conclusions and recommendations. The climatic elements and dust phenomena of the study area were studied through the monthly mean during the pomegranate growth season. The study found that availability of climatic potentials compatible with the climatic requirements for growing the crop in the province, and also proved that there are clear indicators of changes in the course of the elements of the climate represented in the direction of mean temperature and the maximum and the minimum and the highest and the bottom of the small And the trend of sun shin Duration and wind speeds are decreasing, leading to lower evaporation rates.
The study showed that there is spatial variability in the stations of the study area during the growth season of the crop. The climate model Temperatures are the dominant and most frequent among the models. The study also shows the trend towards the production of the pomegranate crop, as well as the treatment of pests and pomegranate diseases after climate change
It was proved through the linear regression model of the quantity of production (ton) that the model is positive for the intersection with the vertical axis and the tests of (t) were carried out at a significant level (95%) for the Hayy and Kut stations and 99% for the Azizia and Badra stations, The results showed that the value of the (R2) coefficient for the most important climatic elements and the production (ton) in the stations of the study area ranged between (87% - 100%) and Durbin-Watson. The existence of the phenomenon of Auto-correlation between the variables, ranging between (1.887-2.102).
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