THE USE OF GEOGRAPHIC
INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN
CLIMATOLOGY AND
METEOROLOGY
Final Report
COST ACTION 719
Edited by
Ole Einar Tveito, Martin Wegehenkel, Frans van der Wel and Hartwig Dobesch
November 2006
Contents
Forword/Executive summary ........................................................................ 6
1.- Background and motivation .................................................................... 6
2.- Objectives.............................................................................. 7
3.- Benefits ................................................................................................. 8
4.- Scientific programme .................................................... 8
5.- Deliverables.............................................................................................. 9
6.- Dissemination.......................................................................................... 10
7.- Co-operations with other fora.................................................................. 10
CHAPTER 1: GIS TECHNOLOGY AND SPATIAL DATA (WORKING GROUP 1)..........11
I.1 The status of the use of GIS in (hydro)meteorological and climatological institutes......... 11
I.1.1 Introduction ........................................ 11
I.1.2 Weather and GIS .......................................................................... 12
I.1.3 Geographical data, environmental data and weather data ............................. 12
I.1.4 A GIS approach to access weather data............................................................. 14
I.2 Data and metadata .................................................... 16
I.2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 16
I.2.2. Important datasets............................................................................................. 16
I.2.3. Metadata .................................................................................. 18
I.2.4. Open Geospatial consortium ........................................................ 19
I.2.6 Projects using Earth observations satellites...................................... 24
I.3. Interoperability.................................................................................... 26
I.3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................... 26
I.3.2 Technology for service oriented architectures....................................................... 27
I.3.3 Interoperability in GIS................................................................ 28
I.3.4 Open Geospatial Consortium foundation ideas..................................... 29
I.3.5 Standardized geospatial web services ........................................ 29
I.3.6 GIS and AS interoperability potential – data model and formats.......................... 32
I.3.7 Atmospheric Data Model ............................................................ 33
I.3.8 Support from GIS for atmospheric data formats .................................. 34
I.4 Conclusions ................................................................................... 35
I.5 References ..................................................................... 36
CHAPTER II: SPATIALISATION OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION WITH THE SUPPORT OF GIS (WORKING GROUP 2).......37
II.1 Introduction.................................................................................. 37
II.1.1 Background .................................................................................... 37
II.1.2 Motivation........................................................................ 38
II.2 Spatialisation methods and their applications................................ 40
II.2.1 Deterministic methods .............................................................. 41
II.2.1.1 The nearest neighbour method...................................................... 42
II.2.1.2 Triangulation ...................................................................... 43
II.2.1.3 Inverse distance weighting method (IDW).................................................. 43
II.2.1.4 Polynomial functions. .................................................................. 44
II.2.2 Probabilistic methods.................................................................. 45
II.2.2.1 Linear regression models...................................................... 45
II.2.2.2 Geostatistical methods ................................................................ 46
II.2.3 Combined methods (deterministic and stochastic part)............................ 51
II.2.3.1 Universal kriging ..................................................................... 51
II.2.3.2 Kriging with external drift ............................................................. 52
II.2.3.3 Residual kriging or detrended kriging ......................................................... 53
II.2.4 Methods specially developed for meteorology and climatology.................. 53
II.2.4.1 PRISM............................................................................... 53
II.2.4.2 Aurelhy ........................................................................................ 54
II.2.4.3 MISH (Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenized Data Basis) .... 54
II.2.4.4 Difference between the geostatistical methods and MISH method ....... 55
II.2.5 Artificial Neural Networks........................................ 56
II.2.5.1 Neural Network Terminology.......................................................... 57
II.2.6 Physically based methods ......................................................................... 61
II.2.6.1 Downscaling methods............................................................................. 62
II.2.6.2 Statistical Downscaling (SDS)........................................................ 62
II.2.6.3 Dynamical Downscaling (RCM) .......................................... 63
II.2.7 Assessment of uncertainties in spatialisation. ........................................... 64
II.2.7.1 Data representativity, quality and reliability.................................... 64
II.2.7.3 Estimation of uncertainty................................................................ 68
II.2.7.4 Validation ........................................................................... 71
II.2.7.5 Validation procedures............................................................................. 72
II.3 Spatialisation in meteorology and climatology by use of GIS ............................. 73
II.3.1.1 Monthly mean temperature.................................................... 73
II.3.2 Precipitation ............................................................................................. 101
II.3.2.1 Spatialisation of precipitation at different time scales in Slovenia ................ 101
II.3.2.3 Hourly and daily convective precipitation................................. 103
II.3.2.4 Hourly and daily stratiform precipitation ........................................ 104
II.3.2.5 Monthly and annual precipitation sums.............................................. 105
II.3.2.6 Long-term mean precipitation .................................................... 106
II.3.2.7 The rain in Spain................................................................... 106
II.3.2.8 Gridding precipitation in Norway..................................................... 107
II.3.2.9 Spatialisation of Extreme Precipitation in Complex Terrain ............ 110
II.3.2.10 Time series analysis of PE2D................................. 111
II.3.2.11 Spatial interpolation of mean PE2D ................................. 111
II.3.2.12 Spatial interpolation of PE24......................................................... 112
II.3.3 Spatial distribution of wind potential at small scale............................... 113
II.3.3.1. Introduction ...................................................................... 113
II.3.3.2 Combined statistical and modelling approach .............................. 114
II.3.3.3 Downscaling modelling approach................................................. 116
II.3.4 Air pollution and air quality...................................................................... 119
II.3.4.1 Introduction .................................................................... 119
II.3.4.2 ............................................... 119
II.3.4.3 Results ................................................................................ 119
II.3.5 Radiation.................................................................................. 121
II.3.5.1 Radiation balance.......................................................................... 121
II.3.6 Sunshine duration and cloudiness ............................................. 125
III.3.7.1 Snow in Norway............................................................ 128
II.3.7.2 Snow loads in Spain.................................................. 129
II.3.7.3 Snow in Austria ...................................................... 129
II.3.8 Gridded datasets................................................................................. 132
II.3.8.1 Climate anomaly maps and long term gridded climatological datasets. ....... 133
II.3.8.3 Hindcast and re-analysis, a Spanish example .................. 138
II.3.9 Climate indices.................................................... 139
II.3.9.1 Climatological season and degree-days ...................................... 140
II.3.9.2 Number of frost days. ................................................ 142
II.3.9.3 Biocomfort index............................................................... 142
II.3.9.3 FWI – Fire Weather Index........................................................... 146
II.3.9.4 PDSI - Palmer Drought Severity Index ................................... 147
II.3.9.5 WSI – Weather Stress Index............................................... 148
II.3.10 Phenology. ........................................................................ 148
II.3.10.1 Spatialisation of phenology in Slovenia. ..................................... 149
II.3.10.2 Agricultural applications....................................................... 152
II.3.11 Applying spatialisation in future climate assessment........................ 153
II.3.11.1 December minimum temperature of 2100 compared to 1990-1995. ........... 153
II.3.11.2 Scenarios for growing season ............................................. 154
II.4 Recommendations .................................................... 156
II.5 A look into the future................................................... 157
II.6 References..................................................... 158
APPENDIX II.A.................................................. 167
APPENDIX II.B .......................................................... 169
Computational Methodology of Artificial Neural Networks ............. 169
CHAPTER III: GIS APPLICATIONS................................................173
III.1 Introduction .......................................................... 173
III.2 Overview of actual state of art of GIS applications in meteorology and climatology... 174
III.2.1 Derivation of spatial climate data .............................. 175
III.2.1.1 Remote sensing........................................... 175
III.2.1.2 Baseline climatologies................................................... 175
III.2.1.3 Climate interpolation.............................................. 176
III.2.2 Applications of spatial climate data................................... 176
III.2.2.1 Agriculture .................................................... 176
III.2.2.2 Ecology................................................................. 177
III.2.2.3 Forestry..................................................................................... 177
III.2.2.4 Weather forecasting......................................... 177
III.2.2.5 Hydrology...................................... 178
III.2.2.6 Transport ........................................................... 179
III.2.2.7 Climate change....................................... 179
III.3 Classification of GIS-Applications ........................................... 180
III.4 Demo projects ...................................................... 183
III.4.1 Demo A: Mapping the precipitation using combined information from satellite, mesoscale forecast models and ground measurements (synoptic and climatologic) – a GIS approach......... 183
III.4.1.1 Introduction .......................................... 183
III.4.1.2 Outlines ................................................... 183
III.4.2 Demo B: Spatial interpolation of temperature in Alpine Regions .............. 185
III.4.2.1 Introduction and goals ................................................. 185
III.4.2.2 Material and methods ............................................ 185
III.4.2.3 Results ................................................................... 186
III.4.2.4 Verification and test of the demo by potential users ...................... 186
III.4.2.5 Discussions, conclusions and outlook ....................................... 188
III.4.3 Demo C: Application of the commercial software “IceMiser” for the prediction of road surface
temperature ....................................... 188
III.4.3.2 The use of GIS and “IceMiser” to predict winter road surface temperatures in Slovenia . 194
III.4.4 Demo D COST-719 Summer School in Application of GIS in Meteorology and Climatology .. 203
III.4.4.1 COST-719 Summer School initiative framework .............. 203
III.4.4.2Course objectives and content ................................ 203
III.4.4.3 Teaching approach ..................................................... 204
III.4.4.4 Local Organizer activities................................................. 204
III.4.4.5 Web page and course presentation ................................................. 205
III.4.4.6 Selection of candidates........................................ 206
III.4.4.7 Scientific coordination ........................................... 206
III.4.4.8 Organisation of Course Logistics and Teaching......................... 206
III.4.4.9 Course assessment............................................... 207
III.4.4.10 Results .............................................................. 208
III.4.4.11 Conclusions ................................................... 209
III.5 Customer demands (Ecologist, Geographer, Hydrologist) ...................... 210
III.6 Conclusions and outlook .............................................. 210
III.7 References ........................................................... 212
Annex III.I : Demo D of COST-719, Summer School ................................. 218
Annex III.2: Results of participants’ course evaluation questionnaire of the summer school in Demo D ..... 222
Annex III.3 Documentation of COST-719 DemoB.............................. 223
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