Glaciers and Climate Change
Spatio-temporal Analysis of
Glacier Fluctuations
in the European Alps after 1850
Michael Zemp
2006
Glaciers and Climate Change
Spatio-temporal Analysis of Glacier Fluctuations
in the European Alps after 1850
Dissertation
zur
Erlangung der naturwissenschaftlichen Doktorwürde
(Dr. sc. nat.)
vorgelegt der
Mathematisch-naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät
der
Universität Zürich
von
Michael Zemp
von Romoos LU
Promotionskomitee
Prof. Dr. Wilfried Haeberli (Vorsitz)
Dr. Martin Hoelzle
Zürich, 2006
Summary In densely populated high mountain regions such as the European Alps, glaciers are an inherent component of the Alpine culture, landscape and environment. They represent a unique resource of fresh water for agriculture and industry, an important economic component of tourism and hydro-power production, and a potential source of serious natural hazards. Due to their proximity to the melting point, glaciers are considered among the best natural indicators of global climate change. Mountain glaciers have become the leading icon in the current debate on climate change and on the uniqueness of present-day changes as compared to the variations which occurred during the Holocene period. Although numerous studies have investigated the relationship between glaciers and climate change, glacier-climate studies that focus on an entire mountain range and integrate in-situ measurements, remote sensing data and modelling approaches, as proposed by modern monitoring strategies, have for the most part been lacking.
It is to fill this gap in our understanding that this study undertakes to investigate glacier fluctuations in the European Alps after 1850. Glacier inventories, in-situ measurements and a numerical model (based on an empirical relationship between precipitation and temperature at the glacier steady-state equilibrium line altitude) are used in combination with a digital elevation model and GIS techniques to analyse the glacier fluctuations between 1850 and the end of the 21st century of the entire Alpine mountain range.
It is to fill this gap in our understanding that this study undertakes to investigate glacier fluctuations in the European Alps after 1850. Glacier inventories, in-situ measurements and a numerical model (based on an empirical relationship between precipitation and temperature at the glacier steady-state equilibrium line altitude) are used in combination with a digital elevation model and GIS techniques to analyse the glacier fluctuations between 1850 and the end of the 21st century of the entire Alpine mountain range.
The presented study demonstrates how modern monitoring strategies can be applied for the investigation of glaciers of an entire mountain range, and that the probability of glaciers in the European Alps disappearing within the coming decades is far from slight.
The thesis consists of a collection of five papers; the studies reported on were carried out within the framework of the EU-funded ALP-IMP project and of the World Glacier Monitoring Service.
Contents
Part A: Overview
Summary i
Zusammenfassung iii
Contents v
List of Figures ix
List of Abbreviations xi
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Motivation .................................................................1
1.2 Research objectives ..................................................2
1.3 Outline of the thesis................................................2
2 The European Alps 5
3 Thematic and scientific background 7
3.1 Climate ...................................................................7
3.1.1 Pleistocene and Lategl...................................... 7
3.1.2 Holocene ......................................................... 8
3.1.3 The last millennium ........................................... 9
3.1.4 Future scenarios ............................................... 11
3.2 Glaciers and climate change ...............................13
3.2.1 The cryosphere model .......................................... 13
3.2.2 Energy balance at the glacier surface.................. 15
3.2.3 Glacier mass balance................................................ 16
3.2.4 Glacier reaction to changing climate..................... 17
3.2.5 Modelling approaches.............................................. 18
3.3 International glacier monitoring ............................20
3.4 Alpine glacier fluctuations before 1850 ....................23
4 Summary of research 27
4.1 Paper I ................................................................ 28
4.2 Paper II ............................................................. 29
4.3 Paper III ......................................................... 30
4.4 Paper IV.................................................................. 31
4.5 Paper V.................................................................. 32
5 General discussion 33
5.1 Revision and extension of the Alpine glacier data set ... 33
5.2 Alpine glacier fluctuations after 1850............................. 34
5.3 Comparison of glacier changes in the European Alps with other mountain ranges........................................................ 36
5.4 Modelling of past, present and future Alpine glacierisations... 37
5.5 Glacier monitoring in the European Alps .................. 39
6 Conclusions 41
7 Outlook 43
References 47
Personal bibliography 63
Acknowledgements 65
Curriculum vitae 67
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