موجات الحر والبرد وآثارها البيئية في العراق
أطروحة دكتوراه مقدمة
إلى مجلس كلية التربية للبنات قسم الجغرافيا - جامعة الكوفة
لنيل درجة دكتوراه في الجغرافيا
مهند حطاب شبر
الأستاذ المتمرس الدكتور/علي صاحب طالب الموسوي
Hot and Cold Waves and their
Environmental Effects in Iraq
Submitted to the Council of the Faculty of Education for Girls/University of Kufa
In partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for The Degree of PhD in Geography
Muhannad Hattab Shubbar
Chair Prof. Dr. Ali Sahib Talib Al-Mousawi
2016 A.D. 1437 A.H
The study aims to reveal the severe thermal properties of Iraq that lies between latitudes (20 – 5 29- 50-22 37) north and the longitudes (42 38- 45 48) east and (59 31) north. This location makes most of the areas in Iraq within the thermal excessiveness in the world which lies between the tropical latitude and latitude 35 north and south. Moreover, there are many geographical factors that make Iraq one of the areas that suffers severe ecological conditions represented by the hot and cold waves. The geographical and astronomical location have the greatest effect in that. Also, the nature of the surface and the height decide the pressure systems, their period and intensity.
The study adopted daily and hourly data collection recorded in the Iraqi metrology for a number of climatic elements for the period 1941-2013 in eight stations (Musol, Karkok, Baghdad, Rutba, Hay, Diwaniyah, Nasriyah and Basrah which covers almost most of the areas of Iraq. A certain standard was adopted for calculating the hot and cold waves and their climatic properties that studied periods of the year that were never studied before. Also, the hot and cold waves were distributed on all of the climate stations in the study area. Moreover, the temperatures in each station, which could affect the hot and cold waves were calculated to determine the impact of these systems in deepening those waves. The study also focused on the consequences of these waves and the relation between them. The study followed a scientific analytic method as well as a descriptive one. The study was enhanced by a statistical quantitative method which depends on a number of statistical applications to analyze and process the data by a number of statistical methods like defragmented ratios for revealing the general tendency of hot and cold waves. Excel was also applied in finding the change average and high and low heat waves coefficient. Poisson regression was used for finding the relation between the recorded high and low heat waves and the annual average of the greatest and lowest temperature during the study period. Moreover, we attempted to predict them using the statistical bundle Brq. Our study even tackled the daily climatic maps for the pressure level (1000-500) mb to reveal the type of the pressure systems affecting hot and cold waves in Iraq through visiting: http://vortex.plymoyth.edu, http//www.esrl.noaa.
The study concluded that the sum of hot waves during the study period reached 682 wave within 2644 day. While the sum of low temperature wave reached 659 wave within 2527 day. Through the comprehensive analysis of the climatic maps of the pressure level 1000mb, it has been revealed that the Indian seasonal low heat represents the first pressure system that affect the occurrence of the hot waves by 46.4% of the Hot waves frequency in Iraq. The combined low heat, the Indian and the Sudanese, comes next by 25.9%. It was revealed through analyzing the maps of the pressure level 500mb for the days during the days of high temperatures.
Concerning the cold waves, the results of the comprehensive analysis of the weather maps at 1000mb pressure level indicated that the Siberian level is the pressure system that has the greatest ratio of causing the cold waves by 55.1% followed by the European one by 14.7%, then comes the Siberian and European combined together third by 13.7%. through going through the maps at 500 mb pressure level for the days of cold waves, it was noticed that the air furrows at this pressure level which constituted the greatest effect of these waves by 62.1% of the days of cold heat. The study revealed that the rate of high heat in Iraq during 1934-2013 is moving towards an increase year after the other by 60.6% while cold waves are decreasing gradually by 56.2-. the study indicated the possibility of predicting an increase in hot waves for the period 2014-2023 reaching 129 wave which the highest with a decrease in cold waves for the same period by 62 wave recording the lowest rate.
The study also reached that there is an effect caused by the waves on the weather properties accompanying them in the study area which will be obvious in the various environmental elements through hourly and daily comparison of the weather properties for the days of hot and cold waves by monthly rates and in the days preceding the occurrence of the waves.