TREND ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA IN THE NORTHERN PART - Mahmood Mohammed Mahmood SOLIMAN - Ph.D. THESIS 2020

 TREND ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND

PRECIPITATION DATA IN THE NORTHERN PART

OF LIBYA

  

2020

 

Ph.D. THESIS

 

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY

  

Mahmood Mohammed Mahmood SOLIMAN

   

Prof. Dr.Mücahit COŞKUN 

                                                       


TREND ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN

 THE NORTHERN PART OF LIBYA

 

 

Mahmood Mohammed Mahmood SOLIMAN

 

T.C.

Karabuk University

Institute of Graduate Programs

Department of Geography

Prepared as

PhD Thesis

 

Prof. Dr. Mücahit COŞKUN

 


KARABUK

January, 2020 




TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS........................ 1

THESIS APPROVAL PAGE................... 5

DECLARATION...................................... 6

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.................... 7

ABSTRACT............................................... 8

ÖZET.......................................................... 10

ARABIC ABSTRACT...............................12

ARCHIVE RECORD INFORMATION...................................... 14

ARŞİV KAYIT BİLGİLERİ............................................... 15

ABBREVIATIONS.................................... 16

INTRODUCTION...................................... 18

I. SUBJECT OF THE RESEARCH......... 18

II. PURPOSE AND SUB-AIMS OF THE RESEARCH.... 21

III. SIGNIFICANCE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE RESEARCH........... 22

IV. RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS.......................................... 23

V. MATERIALS AND METHODS OF THE RESEARCH................ 23

VI. PREVIOUS STUDIES........................... 38

I. CHAPTER................................................. 41

CHARACTERISTICS OF PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY................ 41

1.1. Geological Properties of Northern Libya............ 41

1.1.1.

Paleozoic................................................. 41

1.1.2. Mesozoic.................................................. 41

1.1.3. Cenozoic (Tertiary and Quaternary).... 42

1.2. Properties of Geomorphology.................. 45

1.2.1. North Mountains.................................... 45

1.2.1.1. Green Mountain.................................. 45

1.2.1.2. Western's Mountain............................ 46

1.2.2. Coastal Plains and Coastal Landforms......... 46

1.2.2.1. Benghazi Plain...................................... 46

1.2.2.2. Aljafarah Plain..................................... 47

1.2.2.3. Sirte Plain............................................ 47

1.2.3. Plateaus.............................................. 47

1.2.3.1. Al-Butnan and Defna........................... 47

1.2.3.2. Al-Hamada Alhamra........................... 48

1.2.4. Karstic Land Forms................... 48

1.2.5. Arid Region Land Forms....................... 48

1.3. Climate of North Libya.............................. 51

1.4. Properties of Hydrography........................ 51

1.4.1. Surface Water.................................. 51

1.4.2. Groundwater........................................... 51

1.5. Properties of Soils (Parent Material and Components)...... 54

1.5.1. Zonal Soils...................................... 54

1.5.1.1. Terra Rossa................................... 54

1.5.1.2. Arid Steppes Soil......................... 55

1.5.2. Intra-Zonal Soils.................................... 55

1.5.3. Azonal Soils..................................... 56

1.6. Properties of Vegetation in North Libya.................... 59

II.CHAPTER...................................................... 62

CLIMATE CHARACTERISTICS.................. 62

2.1. Effect of Physical Factors on Climate...... 62

2.1.1. Planetary Factors....................... 62

2.1.1.1. Geographical Location......................... 62

2.1.1.2. Air Masses and Fronts............ 64

2.1.1.3.

Depressions............................. 65

2.1.2. Geographical Factors........................ 68

2.1.2.1. Effect Mediterranean Sea and Desert........ 68

2.1.2.2. Impact of Mountains and Direction of Coastline.................. 68

2.1.2.3. Coastline Direction........................... 69

2.1.2.4. Aspects..................................... 71

2.2. Elements of Climate................................... 78

2.2.1. Solar Radiation................................. 78

2.2.2. Temperatures (Maximum, Minimum and Average).................. 84

2.2.3. Atmospheric Pressure and Wind.......... 95

2.2.3.1. Atmospheric Pressure................. 95

2.2.3.2. Wind Directions...................... 101

2.2.3.3. Wind Speed.......................... 105

2.2.4. Humidity and Precipitation............. 108

2.2.4.1. Relative Humidity.......................... 108

2.2.4.2. Evaporation................................ 112

2.2.4.3. Clouds.................................. 117

2.2.4.4. Precipitation............................. 118

2.3. Some Classification of Climate in Study Area.............. 131

2.3.1. SPI Index For Annual of Rain.............. 131

2.3.2. Climate Classification of Erinç............. 141

2.3.3.Climate Classification of L. EMBERGER (Coefficient of Thermal – Rain)   ... 149

2.3.4. Index of Johansson for Continental Climate and Oceanity Climate... 151

2.3.5. Index of Kerner for Continental Climate and Oceanity Climate...... 154

III. CHAPTER.......................................... 157

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA....................... 157

3.1. Descriptive Statistics and Distributions of Temperature Data.................. 158

3.2. Descriptive Statistics and Distribution of Precipitation Data..................... 207

3.3. Statistical Investigation of Temperatures and Precipitation Data............. 239

3.3.1. Investigation of Data Distribution....... 239

3.3.2. Homogeneity of Variances.................. 240

3.3.2.1. Kruskal-Wallis...................... 240

3.3.2.2. Mann-Whitney U..................... 241

3.3.3.Correlation Analysis (Spearman's Rho, and Kendall's tau)................ 242

IV. CHAPTER............................... 248

TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION DATA... 248

4.1.Trend Analysis for Temperatures Data....................................................... 249

4.1.1.Trend Analysis of Mann-Kendall, Spearman, and Sen's slope........... 249

4.1.1.1. Evaluation on Maximum Temperatures Results......................... 265

4.1.1.2. Evaluation of Minimum Temperatures Results........................... 268

4.1.1.3. Evaluationof Average Temperatures Results.............................. 272

4.1.2. Mann-Kendall Correlation Coefficient U(t)-U'(t)............................... 276

4.1.2.1. Graphs of M-K U(t)-U'(t) Results for Seasonally and Annual Maximum Temperatures (1971-2010)........................... 276

4.1.2.4. Evaluation for Results of Mann-Kendall Embodiment Correlation U(t) -U (t') Tests of the Maximum, Minimum and Average Temperatures Data......................... 336

4.1.3. Simple Linear Trend for Temperatures Data.... 343

4.1.3.1. Simple Linear Trend of MaximumTemperatures Data (1971-2010)...  343

4.1.3.2. Simple Linear Trend of Minimum Temperatures Data (1971-2010)    352

4.1.3.3. Simple Linear Trend of Average Temperatures Data (1971-2010) 362

4.2. Trend Analysis for Precipitation Data..... 371

4.2.1. Trend Analysis of Mann-Kendall, Spearman and Sen's slope........... 371

4.2.2. Relative Correlation of Mann-Kendall U(t)-U'(t) Graphs for Precipitation Data (1971-2010)...383

4.2.3. Simple Linear Regression of PrecipitationData (1971-2010).............. 405

4.2.3.1. Simple Linear Regression for Seasonally Precipitation.............. 405

4.2.3.2. Simple Linear Regression for Annual Precipitation Data (1971-2010) 413

4.2.4. Control's Models of Trend for Annual Precipitation Data (1971-2010) 418

V. CHAPTER.................................... 427

CONCLUSION............................................. 427

REFERENCES.............................................. 449

LIST OF TABLES.......................................... 462

LIST OF FIGURES....................................... 468

LIST OF MAPS............................................... 486

CURRICULUM VITAE  ...     488

ABSTRACT

The trend analysis is one of the important climate studies for detecting climate change in the short and long term. Climate change trend analysis can provide information on how climate has evolved to determine the changes and trends in climate elements over time. The importance of climate trend analysis studies is to estimate the risks of future climate changes based on current data and to try to avoid drought and lack of water resources by establishing sound scientific plans based on the results of these studies.

The scope of the research subject entitled “Trend Analysis of Temperatures and Precipitation data in Northern part of Libya” extends to analysis of 16 meteorological stations, 8 of which are coastal stations, which are Agdabia, Benghazi, Derna, Misurata, Sirte, Tobruk, Tripoli, Zwara. And 5 of them are desert stations, which are Ghadames, Ghariat, Hon, Jaghboub, Jalo, and 3 mountain stations are Alfataiah, NALUT and SHAHAT. In order to perform trend analysis, the data must be at least 30 years old. The data for current analysis in most of the stations comprises of 40 years, from 1971 to 2010, except for Alfataiah Station (1981-2010) and Tobruk Station (1984-2010).The necessary data comprising 40-year continuous data were collected from Libyan National Meteorological center climate & climate Change, Tripoli.

Microsoft Excel 2007 and IBM SPSS 23 program were used to organize the climate and other data and to create tables, graphs and figures for the data. Arc GIS 10.4 (Geography Information System) program was used to make the maps. Trend Analysis and Windows software and IBM SPSS 23 program were used to perform trends and other statistical analyzes. Descriptive statistics of the data were made in the statistical methods used within the scope of the study, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test for made normality distributions, and the data were not distributed normally. After the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used to determine the difference between the

temperature and Precipitation, the correlation was determined using the Spearman Rho method for correlation analysis. For the trend analysis of 40-year temperature and precipitation data, trends directions were determined by Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho, Sen test, Simple Linear Regression Analysis for temperatures.

In maximum temperatures, it is observed that there are warming at western stations of the study area during the spring season and in most stations in the summer, and Sirte, Agdabia, Jalo and Hon stations in autumn. The winter season showed no significant trends in the maximum temperatures. However, the general average temperatures of the maximum temperatures have shown warming in all stations except for stations near Green Mountain and Zwara station in the west. In minimum temperatures, it is observed that there are warming at all stations in summer, except for Shahat station. In spring, while in the autumn season, all stations showed warming except for stations located on a high elevation, such as Nalut, Ghadames and Shahat. The winter season has shown trends towards warming at stations of Jagboub, Alfataiah, and Agdabia, as for the annual average, it showed trends towards warming in some situations, such as Jaghboub, Alfataiah and Zwara. In average temperatures, most stations showed a tendency to warming.

There were relationships between the indicators of the North Atlantic Oscillation (positive and negative) and the increase trends in the autumn season in several years the most important of which was in September 1993 with the value (-3.18) and its impact reached several stations such as Al-FATAIAH, JAGHBOUB, JALO, TRIPOLI and DERNA in increasing and decreasing trends in temperatures and precipitation in deferent years.

     The El Nino and La Nino phenomenon influenced temperature trends and precipitation in the region. The El Niño effect (very strong) in the 1982-1983 season caused the lowest temperatures in DERNA station and the maximum temperatures in ZWARA and JALO stations while the phenomenon of La Niño affected the trends of precipitation in some stations such as NALUT, SHAHAT, JAGHBOUB, TOBRUK, DERNA, JALO, and

JAGHBOUB.Based on results of this study, appropriate plans and policies can be established to address current and future climate conditions, by which areas threatened by drought and water shortages can be identified.

Keywords: Temperature, Precipitation, Trend Analysis, Mann-Kendall, Spearman Trend Slope Test, Physical Geography.


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