TREND ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION DATA IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF LIBYA
2020
Ph.D. THESIS
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY
Mahmood Mohammed Mahmood SOLIMAN
Prof. Dr.Mücahit COŞKUN
TREND ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF LIBYA
Mahmood Mohammed Mahmood SOLIMAN
T.C.
Karabuk University
Institute of Graduate Programs
Department of Geography
Prepared as
PhD Thesis
Prof. Dr. Mücahit COŞKUN
KARABUK
January, 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF
CONTENTS........................ 1
THESIS APPROVAL
PAGE................... 5
DECLARATION...................................... 6
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.................... 7
ABSTRACT............................................... 8
ÖZET.......................................................... 10
ARABIC
ABSTRACT...............................12
ARCHIVE RECORD
INFORMATION...................................... 14
ARŞİV KAYIT
BİLGİLERİ............................................... 15
ABBREVIATIONS.................................... 16
INTRODUCTION...................................... 18
I. SUBJECT OF THE
RESEARCH......... 18
II. PURPOSE AND SUB-AIMS OF THE
RESEARCH.... 21
III. SIGNIFICANCE AND LIMITATIONS OF
THE RESEARCH........... 22
IV. RESEARCH
HYPOTHESIS.......................................... 23
V. MATERIALS AND METHODS OF THE
RESEARCH................ 23
VI. PREVIOUS STUDIES........................... 38
I.
CHAPTER................................................. 41
CHARACTERISTICS OF PHYSICAL
GEOGRAPHY................ 41
1.1. Geological Properties of
Northern Libya............ 41
1.1.1.
Paleozoic................................................. 411.1.2.
Mesozoic.................................................. 41
1.1.3. Cenozoic (Tertiary and
Quaternary).... 42
1.2. Properties of
Geomorphology.................. 45
1.2.1. North
Mountains.................................... 45
1.2.1.1. Green
Mountain.................................. 45
1.2.1.2. Western's
Mountain............................ 46
1.2.2. Coastal Plains and Coastal
Landforms......... 46
1.2.2.1. Benghazi
Plain...................................... 46
1.2.2.2. Aljafarah
Plain..................................... 47
1.2.2.3. Sirte
Plain............................................ 47
1.2.3.
Plateaus.............................................. 47
1.2.3.1. Al-Butnan and
Defna........................... 47
1.2.3.2. Al-Hamada
Alhamra........................... 48
1.2.4. Karstic Land
Forms................... 48
1.2.5. Arid Region Land
Forms....................... 48
1.3. Climate of North
Libya.............................. 51
1.4. Properties of Hydrography........................ 51
1.4.1. Surface
Water.................................. 51
1.4.2.
Groundwater........................................... 51
1.5. Properties of Soils (Parent
Material and Components)...... 54
1.5.1. Zonal
Soils...................................... 54
1.5.1.1. Terra
Rossa................................... 54
1.5.1.2. Arid Steppes
Soil......................... 55
1.5.2. Intra-Zonal
Soils.................................... 55
1.5.3. Azonal
Soils..................................... 56
1.6. Properties of Vegetation in
North Libya.................... 59
II.CHAPTER...................................................... 62
CLIMATE
CHARACTERISTICS.................. 62
2.1. Effect of Physical Factors on
Climate...... 62
2.1.1. Planetary Factors....................... 62
2.1.1.1. Geographical
Location......................... 62
2.1.1.2. Air Masses and
Fronts............ 64
2.1.1.3.
Depressions............................. 652.1.2. Geographical
Factors........................ 68
2.1.2.1. Effect Mediterranean Sea
and Desert........ 68
2.1.2.2. Impact of Mountains and
Direction of Coastline.................. 68
2.1.2.3. Coastline
Direction........................... 69
2.1.2.4.
Aspects..................................... 71
2.2. Elements of
Climate................................... 78
2.2.1. Solar
Radiation................................. 78
2.2.2. Temperatures (Maximum,
Minimum and Average).................. 84
2.2.3. Atmospheric Pressure and
Wind.......... 95
2.2.3.1. Atmospheric
Pressure................. 95
2.2.3.2. Wind
Directions...................... 101
2.2.3.3. Wind
Speed.......................... 105
2.2.4. Humidity and
Precipitation............. 108
2.2.4.1. Relative
Humidity.......................... 108
2.2.4.2. Evaporation................................ 112
2.2.4.3.
Clouds.................................. 117
2.2.4.4.
Precipitation............................. 118
2.3. Some Classification of Climate
in Study Area.............. 131
2.3.1. SPI Index For Annual of
Rain.............. 131
2.3.2. Climate Classification of
Erinç............. 141
2.3.3.Climate Classification of L.
EMBERGER (Coefficient of Thermal – Rain) ... 149
2.3.4. Index of Johansson for
Continental Climate and Oceanity Climate... 151
2.3.5. Index of Kerner for
Continental Climate and Oceanity Climate...... 154
III.
CHAPTER.......................................... 157
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND
DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DATA....................... 157
3.1. Descriptive Statistics and Distributions
of Temperature Data.................. 158
3.2. Descriptive Statistics and
Distribution of Precipitation Data..................... 207
3.3. Statistical Investigation of
Temperatures and Precipitation Data............. 239
3.3.1. Investigation of Data
Distribution....... 239
3.3.2. Homogeneity of
Variances.................. 240
3.3.2.1.
Kruskal-Wallis...................... 240
3.3.2.2. Mann-Whitney
U..................... 241
3.3.3.Correlation Analysis
(Spearman's Rho, and Kendall's tau)................ 242
IV. CHAPTER............................... 248
TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION DATA... 248
4.1.Trend Analysis for Temperatures
Data....................................................... 249
4.1.1.Trend Analysis of
Mann-Kendall, Spearman, and Sen's slope........... 249
4.1.1.1. Evaluation on Maximum
Temperatures Results......................... 265
4.1.1.2. Evaluation of Minimum
Temperatures Results........................... 268
4.1.1.3. Evaluationof Average
Temperatures Results.............................. 272
4.1.2. Mann-Kendall Correlation
Coefficient U(t)-U'(t)............................... 276
4.1.2.1. Graphs of M-K U(t)-U'(t)
Results for Seasonally and Annual Maximum Temperatures (1971-2010)........................... 276
4.1.2.4. Evaluation for Results of
Mann-Kendall Embodiment Correlation U(t) -U (t') Tests of the Maximum, Minimum
and Average Temperatures Data......................... 336
4.1.3. Simple Linear Trend for
Temperatures Data.... 343
4.1.3.1. Simple Linear Trend of
MaximumTemperatures Data (1971-2010)... 343
4.1.3.2. Simple Linear Trend of
Minimum Temperatures Data (1971-2010) 352
4.1.3.3. Simple Linear Trend of
Average Temperatures Data (1971-2010) 362
4.2. Trend Analysis for Precipitation
Data..... 371
4.2.1. Trend Analysis of
Mann-Kendall, Spearman and Sen's slope........... 371
4.2.2. Relative Correlation of
Mann-Kendall U(t)-U'(t) Graphs for Precipitation Data (1971-2010)...383
4.2.3. Simple Linear Regression of
PrecipitationData (1971-2010).............. 405
4.2.3.1. Simple Linear Regression
for Seasonally Precipitation.............. 405
4.2.3.2. Simple Linear Regression
for Annual Precipitation Data (1971-2010) 413
4.2.4. Control's Models of Trend for
Annual Precipitation Data (1971-2010) 418
V.
CHAPTER.................................... 427
CONCLUSION............................................. 427
REFERENCES.............................................. 449
LIST OF
TABLES.......................................... 462
LIST OF
FIGURES....................................... 468
LIST OF MAPS............................................... 486
CURRICULUM VITAE ...
488
The trend analysis is one of the important climate
studies for detecting climate change in the short and long term. Climate change
trend analysis can provide information on how climate has evolved to determine
the changes and trends in climate elements over time. The importance of climate
trend analysis studies is to estimate the risks of future climate changes based
on current data and to try to avoid drought and lack of water resources by
establishing sound scientific plans based on the results of these studies.
The scope of the research subject entitled “Trend
Analysis of Temperatures and Precipitation data in Northern part of Libya”
extends to analysis of 16 meteorological stations, 8 of which are coastal
stations, which are Agdabia, Benghazi, Derna, Misurata, Sirte, Tobruk, Tripoli,
Zwara. And 5 of them are desert stations, which are Ghadames, Ghariat, Hon,
Jaghboub, Jalo, and 3 mountain stations are Alfataiah, NALUT and SHAHAT. In
order to perform trend analysis, the data must be at least 30 years old. The
data for current analysis in most of the stations comprises of 40 years, from
1971 to 2010, except for Alfataiah Station (1981-2010) and Tobruk Station
(1984-2010).The necessary data comprising 40-year continuous data were
collected from Libyan National Meteorological center climate & climate
Change, Tripoli.
Microsoft Excel 2007 and IBM SPSS 23 program were used to organize the climate and other data and to create tables, graphs and figures for the data. Arc GIS 10.4 (Geography Information System) program was used to make the maps. Trend Analysis and Windows software and IBM SPSS 23 program were used to perform trends and other statistical analyzes. Descriptive statistics of the data were made in the statistical methods used within the scope of the study, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test for made normality distributions, and the data were not distributed normally. After the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used to determine the difference between the
temperature and Precipitation, the correlation was determined using the Spearman Rho method for correlation analysis. For the trend analysis of 40-year temperature and precipitation data, trends directions were determined by Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho, Sen test, Simple Linear Regression Analysis for temperatures.In maximum temperatures, it is observed that there are warming at western stations of the study area during the spring season and in most stations in the summer, and Sirte, Agdabia, Jalo and Hon stations in autumn. The winter season showed no significant trends in the maximum temperatures. However, the general average temperatures of the maximum temperatures have shown warming in all stations except for stations near Green Mountain and Zwara station in the west. In minimum temperatures, it is observed that there are warming at all stations in summer, except for Shahat station. In spring, while in the autumn season, all stations showed warming except for stations located on a high elevation, such as Nalut, Ghadames and Shahat. The winter season has shown trends towards warming at stations of Jagboub, Alfataiah, and Agdabia, as for the annual average, it showed trends towards warming in some situations, such as Jaghboub, Alfataiah and Zwara. In average temperatures, most stations showed a tendency to warming.
There were relationships between the indicators of the
North Atlantic Oscillation (positive and negative) and the increase trends in
the autumn season in several years the most important of which was in September
1993 with the value (-3.18) and its impact reached several stations such as
Al-FATAIAH, JAGHBOUB, JALO, TRIPOLI and DERNA in increasing and decreasing trends
in temperatures and precipitation in deferent years.
The El Nino and La Nino phenomenon influenced temperature trends and precipitation in the region. The El Niño effect (very strong) in the 1982-1983 season caused the lowest temperatures in DERNA station and the maximum temperatures in ZWARA and JALO stations while the phenomenon of La Niño affected the trends of precipitation in some stations such as NALUT, SHAHAT, JAGHBOUB, TOBRUK, DERNA, JALO, and
JAGHBOUB.Based on results of this study, appropriate plans and policies can be established to address current and future climate conditions, by which areas threatened by drought and water shortages can be identified.Keywords: Temperature, Precipitation, Trend Analysis, Mann-Kendall, Spearman Trend Slope Test, Physical Geography.
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