سكان شعبية الخليج بليبيا
(1954 - 2006م)
بحث مقدم من الطالب
محمد هاشم محمد الخفيفي
للحصول على درجة الدكتوراه في الآداب من قسم الجغرافيا
بكلية الآداب - جامعة القاهرة
أحمد حسن إبراهيم
أستاذ الجغرافيا البشرية
كلية الآداب - جامعة القاهرة
The Population of Al Khaleej Municipality
A Geographic Study (1954-2006)
A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for a degree of Doctorate of Philosophy in Geography
Muhammed Hashim Al Khefaifi
Ahmed Hassan Ibraheem, PhD
Professor of Human Geography at the Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, Cairo University
The Population of Al Khaleej Municipality in Libya A Geographic Study (1954-2006)
Al Khaleej province in Libya constitutes 41% of the total area of the country and is populated by about 6% of the total population. The importance of this province is due to the fact that it holds ap proximately 90% of the country's oil fields. In addition, most of the oil related plants are located in this province.
The province has been a huge attraction for waves of migrations, both foreign and domestic from 1954 to 2006. Which resulted in the increase of population growth rates in the province. However the population growth rates fell during the period from 1984 to 2006. This was due to many factors: the decrease in natural population growth rates accompanied by the reversed migration wave. The researcher selected the province to investigate its human geography over a period of 52 years.
Chapter one looked into the population growth rates from 1954 to 2006 especially the geographical contrast between population growth rates, the study of the components of the population growth− birth-rates, mortality and migrations. The study shows that in 2006 the population of the province was 322379 capita living in an area of 730960 square kilometre, which constitutes a population density of 0.4%. The population growth rate rose to 5.6 between the censuses of 1973 and 1984 and fell in the 1984-1995 period with a rate of 4.7% due to decrease in natural growth rates. The rate fell lower in the 1995-2006 period at 2.5%. It is worth mentioning that the population in the province multiplied five times in the study period. Birth-rates started increasing gradually to reach the highest rate of 42 per thousand in 1984, then fell to 26.8 per thousand in 2006. Mortality fell from 8.9 per thousand in 1964 to 3.4 per thousand in 2006.
Chapter two examined migration, both domestic and foreign, directions and waves of migration, characteristics and motivations of migrants. A field study conducted in 2010 showed that the majority are middle aged , the ages 40-59, who constitute a large portion of the work force in the sections of manufacturing, transport and supplying. Labour constitutes more than 95.8%. Percentage of married couples increased after migrating from 22.2% to 86.2%. The study also showed that the motivation for migrating was economic. Migrants who moved to the province to improve their financial status constitutes 87.8% of the total migrants. A study of the income showed that 50.3% were paid more than 1000 Libyan diner. Libyan immigrants returning into the country contributed to the increase of population growth rates in the province. Al Khaleej province was ranked five in 1984 as a favoured destination for returning Libyan immigrants were it received 3712 immigrant. In 1995 it came four ,after the provinces of Tripoli, Benghazi and Sebha, were it received 6290 immigrant. In 1995 23% of those went to Sert branch, 22% to Benjawad and 17.4% went to Al Kufra.
Migrant foreign labour were recorded in the 1964 census as 495 emigrant, 38.9% of which came from Arab countries and 61.1% from non Arab countries. This was known as the pre oil period. In the 1973 census 6225 emigrant were recorded, 78.2% of which came from Arab countries and 21.8% from non Arab countries. In 1995 the highest number of emigrant foreign labour was recorded at 38580. However, in 2006 the number fell to 30978 emigrant.
Chapter three investigated the density and distribution of the population on the branches of the province. In addition, it studied the factors controlling the differences in population distribution. It was found that the percentage of urban residents rose from 56.5% in 1973 to 84.2% in 2006. A set of statistical measures were applied such as the dynamic radius, centre of population gravity, Lorenz curve, the percentage of concentration and more.
Chapter four studied the natural characteristics of the population such as age structure of the population and determining the specifications of the population in broad age groups. In addition the population pyramid of the province was also studied to show the discrepancies in the population pyramid between in the years 1954-2006 and the factors effecting such differences. The study found that the population of this province remained young throughout the study period. Median age of the population of the province dropped between the years 1954-1995 from 19.8 years to 17.5 years, then rose again to 20 years old in 2006 census. This reflects the huge drop in birth and mortality rates, particularly in infant mortality. Moreover, total dependency percentage dropped during the same period from 77.2% to 65.9%. This might be attributed to the drop in youth numbers. A clear discrepancy was also visible in the population pyramid in the province in the year 1954 when compared to the year 2006, which could be attributed to the changes in population growth components throughout the study period.
Crude economic activity rates also rose from 44.8% in 1973 to 62.4% in 2006, whereas actual activity rates in the same period dropped from 45.4% to 42.8%. Primary activities group came first in 1973 due to the large numbers of the work force in agricultural sector with a percentage of 33.5%, tertiary activities came second followed by secondary activities in third place. However, in 2006 tertiary activities group came first with workers in the services sector constitute 35%, primary activities group came in second place and secondary activities group came third. Number of workers in the agricultural sector, sales and production fell, whereas other sectors such as technical, scientific and administrational professions and service sector rose in the same period. This increase was marked by the rise in the percentage of female work power compared to male work power.
Full time housewives came in first place during the 1954-1995 period followed by full time students whereas administrational employees came in third. Single persons percentage rose from 16.5% to 56.6%, whereas married persons fell from 69.4% to 38.2% in the 1964-2006 period.
Chapter five, which is the last chapter of the dissertation, looked into indications of the population human developments in educational, health and housing services. Issues of women situation and the population future study to the year 2036 were also discussed in this chapter. Illiteracy rates dropped for more than 75% in the 1964-2006 period for both males and females due to the great demand for education among the population. Number of students graduating from elementary education rose from 2.1% in 1964 to 22.9% in 2006, in addition, number of preparatory tertiary activities came education gradates rose from 0.5% to 25%. Moreover, certified intermediate education graduates rose from 0.2% to 18.4% and university graduates from 0.1% to 4.2% during the same period..
This chapter was concluded by an estimation of the populations needs for job opportunities and educational and health services till the end of the deduction period. The study showed that the population in of the province is expected to reach 644830 in 2036, this increase in population would result in an increase in population density which in turn is expected to reach 0.7% per square kilometre.
Taking this future insight into consideration, the province will require new job opportunities. Results also showed that the province has to provide more elementary, preparatory and secondary schools as well as more hospitals, doctors and nurses to face this expected population increase.
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