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التخمينات المستقبلية لاستعادة أهوار جنوب العراق - فائق يونس عبدالله المنصوري - أطروحة دكتوراه 2008م

التخمينات المستقبلية لاستعادة أهوار جنوب العراق


أطروحة تقدم بها

فائق يونس عبدالله المنصوري

ماجستير علوم فيزياء التربة والمياه

الى

مجلس كلية الزراعة - جامعة البصرة

كجزء من متطلبات نيل درجة الدكتوراه

في العلوم الزراعية

علوم فيزياء التربة والمياه – ادارة المياه

محرم 1429 هـ -  شباط 2008 م














Future AssessmentOf  Southern Iraqi Marshes,


A PhD. Thesis Submitted By
Faiq Younis Al-Manssory

To the
College of Agriculture
University of Basrah
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements
For Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in
Soil & Water physics- Water Management

 2008



Abstract 

 This study attempt to put a multi-scenarios program in order to restoring and reflooding Southern Iraqi marshes, through a conceptual hydrological model depending on wetlands water and salt balance equations in order to predict the quantity and quality of incoming water discharge from Tigris – Euphrates river system. Restoring processes had been divided into multi-spatial points with multitemporal scenarios depending on the physical nature of Southern Iraqi marshlands and water quality and quantity that will reach study area, taking in account the vegetation cover and water consumptive use for urban and rural uses. 

  Chemical analysis results of marshes water shows that Al-Hammar water is averagely lower than Al-Qurnah and Al-Hawizah. On seasonal bases Al-Qurnah water shows an inverse relationship with rainfall and water discharge, highest values were recorded on Autumn season (2880 mg/L), and lower ones on Spring season (1115 mg/L).This could be attributed to un controlled water regime of Tigris River (the main water input source for Al-Qurnah marshland) which it is still subjected to natural hydrological regime in contrary with hydraulic control of Euphrates River (supply Al-Hammar marshland) and Kharch and other Iranian rivers( supply Al-Hawizah marshland) . Soil salinity shows an extreme positive relationship with marsh water salinity on Al-Hammar and Al-Qurnah marshes, while lowest soil salinity (8000mg/L) was recorded on Chebaysh/ Al-Hammar marshes (1857 mg/L). 

  Evapotranspiration results shows that the maximum values occurred from May- September in Basrah and Nasiriah stations, while it extend from May – August in Amarah station. Maximum value (16.14 mm/day) was recorded in Nasiriah on June, and 14.08 mm/day, 12.91 mm/day in Amarah and Basrah stations, respectively on July. Minimum values occurred from October- April in Basrah and Nasiriah stations, and from September- April in Amarah station, with 3.19 mm/day during December and 3.29 mm/day, 3.50 mm/day in Basrah and Nasiriah during January, respectively. 

  Salt balance scenario was conceive depending on calculating of water evaporation losses according to FAO Penman-Monteith method (1990) equation, for four reflooding scenarios (25%,50%,75%, and 100%) of formal marshland area, with three types of water discharge (high, low, and current states). result shows that it could not be restoring 100% of Al-Hammar marshes and 100%,75%, and 50% of Al-Hawizah marshes on low water discharge due to exceeding the upper limit of desired salt concentration (3000 mg/L). Results, also shows that it could not be Dr. Faiq Y. Al-Manssory Digital Library 3/18 B restoring a 100% of Al-Hawizah marshes on current discharge, while all the remaining scenarios were going successfully. Due to high upper limit of desired salt concentration (5000 mg/L) in Al-Qurnah marshland, all scenarios were going successfully for the four restoring marshlands area and on all the three conditions of water discharge. 

   Water balance of Southern Iraqi marshlands was divided into two sub water balance representing an agrometerological factors, first one for climatological factors and the second for soil and plant characteristics (Agronomical factors). Another sub-scenario was undergoing including the type of the vegetated crop, wheat - barley group and wheat – barley-rice group. All the above scenarios were subjected to time variant, taking in account the re-flooding temporal schedule. Result shows that it is impossible to recover the whole former area of Southern Iraqi marshlands, due to grand shortage in incoming water supplies ranging between -27:-227 m3/Sec , -15:-126 m3/Sec , and -74:-209 m3/Sec in Al-Hammar, Al-Qurnah, and Al-Hawizah marshes on high and low water, respectively. On attempting to restoring 100% of Al-Qurnah, 75% of Al-Hammar and 50% of Al- Hawizah marshland former area this scenario also failed on both conditions of low and current water discharge. While the rest of scenarios going smoothly.

   The future scarcity on Iraqi water budget will be reach 12.92 billion m3/year equaling 38% of natural incoming water discharge for the period 1932-2003, represent 85% from the lowest incoming water discharge for Euphrates drainage basin in Iraq during 1961( for period 1932-1973), with 106% during 1992 and 2000 (for period 1974-2003). Also, this deficiency were applying on Tigris river drainage basin with 41% for the lowest incoming water discharge during 1955 (for period 1932-1973) and 69% during 2000 (for period 1974-2003).The recurrence of water scarcity period indicate that the water budget in Iraq will facing a continuous water shortage during the next decades, whereof hindering the mechanisms of Southern Iraqi marshland restoration, So that we should determined our restoration priority on spatial and temporal bases in order to maintain a delicate balance between natural ecosystem of marshlands preservation and sociosystem requirements of marshland inhibitors within an integrated ecological system



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